The primary cause of their postseason struggles has been health. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton have played together in only three of the Bucks’ 23 playoff games over the last three years. The team still has the core of a championship contender, and staying healthy in April and May could be the key to their success.
Another crucial factor is the defense, which regressed last season. Milwaukee ranked 19th in defensive rating, allowing 0.5 more points per 100 possessions than the league average—its worst defensive season by a significant margin in the last six years.
After Doc Rivers took over as head coach in late January, the Bucks’ defense improved, but they still ranked in the middle of the pack over the final 36 games of the regular season.
Bucks’ 2023-24 Record and Efficiency
| Coach | W | L | OffRtg | Rank | DefRtg | Rank | NetRtg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin/Prunty | 32 | 14 | 120.4 | 2 | 116.3 | 19 | +4.0 | 9 |
| Rivers | 17 | 19 | 113.9 | 18 | 113.3 | 15 | +0.6 | 17 |
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Only two of the last 23 NBA champions have ranked outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Below are some insights into what went wrong defensively for the Bucks last season and how they can improve.
1. Changes in coverage
With new coaches came new defensive schemes. According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Bucks saw the biggest shift in pick-and-roll defense between 2022-23 and 2023-24, along with more changes following their midseason coaching switch.
Bucks’ Ball-Screen Defense (Last Two Seasons)
| Season/coach | Picks | Blitz/Show | %Blitz/show | Switch | %Switch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 6,342 | 303 | 4.8% | 945 | 14.9% |
| Griffin/Prunty | 3,402 | 314 | 9.2% | 766 | 22.5% |
| Rivers | 2,558 | 331 | 12.9% | 811 | 31.7% |
Under former coach Adrian Griffin, the Bucks moved away from the “drop” coverage that had been a staple under Mike Budenholzer. Rivers took them even further away from it, possibly for good reason—opponents scored most efficiently against the Bucks’ drop coverage, which was less effective than in previous years. Not only did opponents shoot better at the rim when Brook Lopez was there, but he also had to defend more shots at the rim per minute than in 2022-23.
According to Second Spectrum, Milwaukee allowed 52.7 drives per 100 possessions, the third-most in the league and up from 49.2 (ninth most) the season before. The pick-and-roll defense isn’t just about the big man, though; the ball-handler’s defender also plays a critical role, and Milwaukee’s point-of-attack defense struggled last season.
Lopez, who turned 36 in April, also had difficulty keeping players in front of him when away from the basket.
Lopez, who turned 36 in April, also struggled to keep guys in front of him when he ventured away from the basket …
2. More aggressive defense = more fouls, but not more turnovers
For the second straight season, Milwaukee ranked in the top 10 in three of the four major defensive factors (effective field goal percentage, rebounding percentage, and free-throw rate), but dropped in all three categories. The Bucks saw the third-biggest increase in opponent free-throw rate, and their reserves were particularly prone to fouling.
Bobby Portis’ fouls per 36 minutes increased from 2.3 in 2022-23 to 3.4 last season, and Andre Jackson averaged 5.8 fouls per 36 minutes, the highest among 186 guards who played at least 500 minutes.
Despite their aggressive defense, the Bucks ranked last in opponent turnover rate (11.9 per 100 possessions) for the second consecutive season. While more aggressive schemes should produce more turnovers, Milwaukee lacked high-deflection players, with no one averaging more than 2.6 deflections per 36 minutes.
3. New additions should help on the ball
Milwaukee didn’t have much cap space this summer, but they added three veterans on minimum contracts: Delon Wright, Gary Trent Jr., and Taurean Prince. Wright and Trent, in particular, should help with turnovers, having averaged 4.1 and 3.1 deflections per 36 minutes, respectively, over the last three years.
Last season, the Bucks’ defense was better against top-10 offenses (10th in the league) than overall (19th). With their four returning starters, they allowed just 106.9 points per 100 possessions in 677 minutes.
Lopez is aging, but if the team stays healthy and Middleton returns to form, along with contributions from the new additions, the Bucks could climb back into the top 10 defensively. If they do, the Eastern Conference title race could get a lot more competitive.
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